Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 00:00:00+00:00 10.817504 12.664482 14.688602 17.065727 19.774892 22.760072 26.291976
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 8.328227 10.929135 14.065631 18.098595 23.115689 29.118284 36.806597
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 6.574465 9.529644 13.398525 18.766599 25.942514 35.115155 47.622074
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 5.377250 8.507893 12.910152 19.428152 28.682036 41.172607 59.088997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 4.288820 7.365385 11.987186 19.246422 30.122840 45.524670 68.612606
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.352153 6.230169 10.834844 18.479131 30.516915 48.325425 76.103397
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 2.675767 5.359627 9.914763 17.873599 30.987702 51.166899 83.776226
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.270905 4.867334 9.513200 18.005637 32.563201 55.737001 94.335943
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 1.888758 4.331817 8.938009 17.738093 33.410509 59.182915 103.361046
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.721496 4.181058 9.026318 18.628377 36.273756 66.067808 118.338423
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.518716 3.912188 8.842640 18.980824 38.203932 71.523158 131.328682
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 1.319161 3.606570 8.534294 19.044662 39.596261 76.139695 143.200589
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.145129 3.330088 8.258641 19.169336 41.175356 81.316841 156.618487
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.091417 3.337453 8.595378 20.586758 45.374235 91.507766 179.553557
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.000873 3.230739 8.661933 21.444918 48.560112 100.096935 200.231642
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.915571 3.118130 8.695873 22.232734 51.672750 108.768288 221.617818
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.786979 2.850910 8.315231 22.045034 52.752765 113.661265 236.353882
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.646263 2.507580 7.682631 21.186491 52.316266 115.568871 245.588674
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.536503 2.227564 7.159134 20.505787 52.176328 118.018679 255.974617
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.474366 2.087353 6.985778 20.655705 53.885716 124.294325 274.162818
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.405732 1.902663 6.652981 20.354134 54.528951 128.412636 288.319208
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.384673 1.888796 6.814609 21.358732 58.301461 139.306425 316.679130
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.348711 1.805794 6.753166 21.756244 60.657508 147.328080 339.606656